What makes political regimes rise, endure, and fall? The main question is
whether the observed close relation between levels of economic development
and the incidence of democratic regimes is due to democracies being more
likely to emerge or only more likely to survive in the more developed
countries. We answer this question using data concerning 135 countries
that existed at any time between 1950 and 1990. We find that the level
of economic development does not affect the probability of transitions to
democracy but that affluence does make democratic regimes more stable. The
relation between affluence and democratic stability is monotonic, and the
breakdown of democracies at middle levels of development is a phenomenon
peculiar to the Southern Cone of Latin America. These patterns also
appear to have been true of the earlier period, but dictatorships are
more likely to survive in wealthy countries that became independent only
after 1950. We conclude that modernization need not generate democracy
but democracies survive in countries that are modern.
Former Soviet republics -- Politics and government.
Post-communism -- Former Soviet republics.
Comparative government.
Abstract:
The recent wave of democratic transitions has stimulated scholarly
interest in a previously undeveloped area of study: comparative
presidentialism. Comparative presidentialism seeks to define variant
types of presidentialism that have emerged from transition processes, to
identify the conditions that shape institutional choice and to understand
more clearly the causal relationship between institutional choice and
democratic regime outcomes. Using the postcommunist transitions, this
paper contributes to the emerging comparative presidentialism literature
by suggesting a revision to the argument that presidentialism leads to
failed democratic transitions. The paper focuses attention away from
the institutional rules of the game and toward the actors who actually
make the institutional choice. Three postcommunist cases, distinguished
by their different regime outcomes, are compared: Russia, Uzbekistan,
and Estonia.
Russia (Federation) -- History -- Autonomy and independence movements.
Russia (Federation) -- Ethnic relations -- Political aspects.
Abstract:
Since 1990 Russia has experienced an unexpected "ethnic revival." Varying
widely in geography, culture, economic development, and institutional
history, the country's thirty-two ethnic regions offer a chance to weigh
the evidence for alternative theories of separatist activism. This paper
examines statistically why some--such as Chechnya and Tatarstan--have
come to epitomize demands for greater independence, while others--such
as Mordovia or Chukotka--have remained largely quiescent. It finds that,
while a Muslim religious tradition predisposed a region's leaders to
press greater separatist demands, such primordial factors were filtered
through a rational calculus of the region's relative bargaining power
in negotiations with the center and of the leader's own organizational
interests. Contrary to some leading theories, the most developed,
resource-rich, and high-income groups and regions were more separatist
than more economically backward ones.
In an effort to contribute to the dialogue between gender studies and
international studies, this report presents findings from an empirical
investigation based on the integrated secondary analysis of survey data
from Israel, Egypt, Palestine, and Kuwait. The goal is to assess the
utility of both gender and attitudes pertaining to the circumstances
of women in accounting for variance in views about war and peace, and
thereafter to examine the degree to which political system attributes
constitute conditionalities associated with important variable
relationships. Major findings include the absence of gender-linked
differences in attitudes toward international conflict in all four of
the societies studied and a significant relationship in each of these
societies between attitudes toward gender equality and attitudes toward
international conflict. Based on data from the Arab world and Israel,
with attitudes about a peaceful resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict
treated as the dependent variable, the research also aspires to shed
light on more practical considerations pertaining to the international
relations of the Middle East.